The Padres drafted the former Arkansas Razorback as the third of seven consecutive offensive player selected in the '08 draft. Forsythe was limited to just 12 games late last summer with the Padres' short season affiliates, but the club felt confident that his polish shown in college would allow for him to transition smoothly to High-A ball. It indeed has as Forsythe hit .320 with 3 HR 11 RBI and 25 runs scored through his first 29 games. Extremely disciplined at the plate, Forsythe has a fluid right-handed swing that drives the ball well to the gaps with good XBH power and the occasional homerun. He makes good contact with the ball and has a good game plan during each plate appearance. Normally a third baseman, Forsythe is also skilled enough to play just about any position in the field adeptly, making him an excellent utility player. Though he is not a speed guy, Logan runs the bases with a good deal of intelligence and determination, allowing him to manufacture runs in many different ways.
2009 Update: As stated before, Forsythe seems to be handling the challenge of High-A ball well in his first full professional season. He is currently batting in the #5 hole for Lake Elsinore and has collected 11 XBH and 27 BB in his first 29 games. Forsythe is someone who's value may not always be recognized statistically as he does so many little things well. He should, though, be a solid #2 or #6 hitter at the major league level who hits 10-15 HR per season while posting an OB% that rivals .400. The Padres are building something special within their organization as they have drafted a ton of high-discipline, mid-ceiling players that should be solid role players as professionals and Logan Forsythe fits right in with that philosophy. With Kevin Kouzmanoff manning the hot corner for the next few seasons, there is no immediate need to rush Forsythe's development. He should play most or all of the season at High-A with an MLB ETA of 2011. By that time, it will be about time for the Friars to decide what to do with Kouzmanoff's upcoming free agent contract. With no other big time third basemen in the system, Forsythe has a genuine opportunity to be groomed as San Diego's next keeper of the hot corner.
The Angels' former 8th round selection missed all of the 2008 season with an ankle injury after a largely successful 2007 at Low-A Cedar Rapids where he hit .260 with 18 HR 72 RBI and 29 doubles. Matthew Sweeney has as much power potential as anyone in the Angels' system not named Brandon Wood. His smooth left-handed swing generates easy power to all fields and has the potential to hit for a high average as well. He has natural loft to his swing and seems to make solid contact with balls in the strike zone. One area of his offensive game that will continually need work is his ability to effectively work deep into counts. He walked just 38 times versus 88 strikeouts in 2007 and should prove to be a more dangerous hitter if he can boost his walk totals by 25-30. Defensively, he is somewhat heavy footed, but has soft hands and good first step range to both his left and right. His arm is plenty strong to handle any throws from the hot corner, though his 28 errors in '07 indicate that he still needs to control it and make more strides toward consistently making the routine plays.
2009 Projection: Sweeney has gotten off to an excellent start at High-A Rancho Cucamonga, hitting .375 with 3 HR 11 RBI and 7 doubles in his first 11 games. The biggest thing to watch out of Matthew is his ability to play the '09 season in good health. He looks like he is completely healthy, but ankle injuries, like so many other maladies, tend to become chronic problems that have detrimental effects on promising careers. Also keep tabs on his defensive performance. If he continues to post sub-.900 fielding percentages, there is a distinct chance that he could shift to the other infield corner or to a corner outfield spot a la Ryan Braun. Over a full season, Sweeney is a 25-30 HR hitter and a potential middle of the lineup hitter at the major league level. The Angels have Brandon Wood ahead of Sweeney on the organization's 3B depth chart, but lots can happen within the next couple of seasons. Sweeney's bat should place him somewhere.
The Giants selected the former UCLA Bruin in the 4th round of the 2008 draft. After a junior season that saw him hit .302 with 7 HR 51 RBI and 11 SB, he has turned up his production a notch as a member of the San Jose Giants by hitting .395 with 3 HR 8 RBI and 10 runs scored in his first 12 games. Crawford has good size and strength for a shortstop with excellent pull power and above average speed. He had some problems with getting pull happy as a collegiate player, and he is currently averaging about a strikeout per game with San Jose. Defensively, Crawford has decent range and good arm strength, though there are some concerns that he has apexed physically and may lose a step or two in the next few seasons. Last season's struggles with the Bruins seemed to affect his confidence on both offense and defense, but his quick start this season serves as evidence that he has put that behind him and is allowing his natural abilities to dictate his performance. He is a heady player who competes well and carries a cerebral approach to all aspects of his game.
2009 Projection: Crawford should play most or all of the season at High-A San Jose alongside mega-talents like Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Connor Gillaspie, and Nick Noonan. Crawford has enough talent and polish to be a starting shortstop at the major league level within the next two seasons, but there is still some work to do. His strikeout rate is too high and he has yet to show an ability to put up a respectable BB/K ratio since he first set foot on UCLA's campus. The grind of a major league season has multiple periods of highs and lows and there has already been criticism of his ability to play with a high level of confidence during slumping periods. If he can move beyond this, he is a 15-20 HR hitter with double digit steal potential. Currently, Emmanuel Burriss is the only viable SS prospect ahead of him on San Francisco's organizational depth chart and current Giants SS Edgar Renteria really has just two or three more productive seasons left. Crawford is someone to watch in an organization that is rapidly becoming one of baseball's best and brightest.
The Marlins acquired the young infielder as the centerpiece of a trade that sent highly talented right hander Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham to the Washington Nationals this past winter. Bonifacio struggled last season with the Diamondbacks and Nationals hitting .240 with 0 HR 16 RBI and 7 SB in 190 AB, but his numbers in spring training fell more in line with his minor league track record as he hit .279 with 13 RBI 14 runs scored and 5 SB in 24 games. Bonifacio has elite speed that he uses as a weapon on the basepaths and allows him great range in the field. He is adept with the glove and his arm strength is strong enough to place him at 3B. One area of his game that needs to improve is approach at the plate. Bonifacio has below average power, yet his swing is not conducive to playing a small game. He has struck out more than 100 times in four of the last five seasons and struggles to draw walks on a consistent basis.
2009 Projection: Bonifacio earned the starting gig as Florida's third baseman and responded with a 4-5 day which included an inside-the-park homerun, four runs scored, and three stolen bases. Bonifacio has the type of game similar to a Chone Figgins as an atypical, slap-hitting speedster who can play a variety of infield positions and generate runs once he is on the basepaths. His challenge for the Marlins is to become a player that can get on base more than 35% of the time, acting as a catalyst for Florida's powerful middle of the lineup.
If good things come in small packages, then the Angels will be quite pleased with their 3rd round pick from the '08 draft. Gomez played in four games with the Angels' Arizona Rookie League affiliate managing just two hits in 15 AB. Despite his demure build, Gomez has a sharp, line drive bat that can power balls to the gaps for doubles and the occasional long ball. He plays the game with savviness and grit that exceeds the range of his skills. He has a strong arm and soft hands that fit well at shortstop, though there is some conjecture that his fringe-average range could fit better at second base. Gomez has gotten pull-happy at times, seemingly to compensate for his slight build, but there is enough projection in his body to believe that he will develop more strength, perhaps alleviating his compulsion to overswing from time to time.
2009 Projection:Limited exposure and limited success should force Gomez to start his '09 season at extended spring training before heading out to Orem in June. Keep an eye on the development of Gomez's offensive game. Has the ability to hit for a high average with 5-10 HR power, but it may take a while for it to develop. If he can stick at SS, his chances of reaching the major leagues with the Angels is a bit better as the road ahead of him is not quite as congested. Long term, he will need to build some more strength to become a serious consideration as an MLB regular. It could happen, but the league is full of SS prospects with much higher upsides.
Key Rolando Gomez Baseball Cards:
2008 Donruss Elite Extra #/544
2008 Playoff Contenders Rookie Ticket SP Auto #/113
Considered to be the centerpiece to the now ill-advised Erik Bedard trade, Adam Jones gave Orioles fans a glimpse of the immense talent that he possesses. Jones batted .270 with 9 HR 57 RBI 10 SB and 61 runs scored for the O's last season and solidified the outfield defense with his excellent range and arm strength in centerfield. Jones has sinewy strength and excellent bat speed that should transform into 20-25 HR power in the very near future. His speed is also top notch, although, he has historically not fully used it as a weapon on the basepaths. The major question mark at this time is directly related to his discipline at the plate. Last season, Jones had a dismal 23 BB/108 K ratio and had trouble with handling offspeed pitches. This spring has brought forth some positive signs in his development as he has batted .350 with 3 HR 5 RBI 7 SB and a 3 BB/10 K ratio in 19 games.
2009 Projection: Adam Jones is primed for better numbers this season from behind the plate and his high SB totals in the spring shows that he intends to be more aggressive on the basepaths as well. The BB/K ratio is the key component to his overall offensive success. By boosting his walk rate and diminishing his K rate a little bit, Jones can threaten to cross the .300 threshold. Brian Roberts is Baltimore's leadoff hitter, but Jones should make a dangerous #2 hitter in that solid Oriole lineup. With excellent pitching prospects down on the farm and a young offense to build around, the Camden Yard boys should be a rising threat in the A.L. East within the next couple of seasons.
The Florida Marlins opted for a more cautious approach in developing their immensely talented outfielder than his previous employer, the Detroit Tigers. Cameron Maybin spent virtually the entire 2008 season at AA Carolina hitting .277 with 13 HR 49 RBI 21 SB and 73 runs scored in 108 games. His solid play earned him a September callup where he went 16-32 with 9 runs scored and 4 SB. Maybin's physical attributes are off the charts. He can put on a show in batting practice, launching 500 ft. HR's and has foot speed that rivals anyone in minor league baseball. Defensively, Maybin has the speed of a center fielder and the cannon arm of a right fielder. He made some strides with his plate discipline last season, earning 63 walks, but his 132 strikeouts were too high given his mediocre power numbers. Maybin has not quite figured out how to consistently translate his pregame power into game time production as he often opts to slap balls to the opposite field or beat out groundballs with his fleet feet. The Marlins are not too concerned at this time with that and do believe that the 22 year old will eventually become the 30-30 player that scouts have tabbed him to be.
2009 Projection: Strong spring numbers (.317 1 HR 7 RBI 15 runs scored) have earned him the starting nod in CF on opening day. The Marlins would like Maybin to continue to develop his top of the order skills, working counts and making consistent contact, rather than focusing on the power element of his game. He and 3B Emiliano Bonifacio should both get some time atop Florida's potent lineup. Keep an eye on his plate discipline as the season progresses, if he can continue to draw walks and limit his strikeout totals, he should gradually nudge Bonifacio out of the leadoff spot for good.
The switch hitting former catcher broke out in a big way in 2008, tormenting pitchers at both High-A San Jose and AA Connecticut for a .350 BA with 20 HR 96 RBI, 90 runs scored and 38 doubles in just 112 games. Sandoval earned a promotion to San Francisco where he didn't miss a beat, hitting .345 with 3 HR 24 RBI and 10 doubles in 145 AB. Sandoval has a lightning-quick bat that produces easy power from both sides of the plate. He makes excellent contact, but doesn't work counts as effectively as someone with his potent bat should. Last season Sandoval combined to walk just 35 times in nearly 600 AB. Defensively, the rotund Sandoval is quite mobile at both infield corner positions, earning just one error in 179 chances. He has excellent arm strength and soft hands ideal for the hot corner.
2009 Projection: All signs point to Sandoval having a huge first full season as a major leaguer. He has hit almost .450 this spring with excellent XBH power and solid plate discipline. The main concern with Sandoval going forward will be his weight, as heavier set players have increased difficulties staying healthy over the course of a 162 game season. His bat, though, is for real and has all the look and functionality of a switch-hitting Edgar Martinez. The Giants are an organization filled with younger talent waiting to blossom. Sandoval will be one of the parties leading the charge very soon.
It's been a tumultuous, up and down ride for Boston's former #1 ranked prospect. Buchholz entered the 2008 season as a front runner for the A.L. Rookie of the Year award only to struggle with his control going 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and 41 BB/72 K in 76 IP. Following the '08 season, the Red Sox sent Clay to get some extra work in the Arizona Fall League and he responded fairly well with a 3.86 ERA in 21 IP, but still struggled with his control (9 BB/17 K). This spring has been a different story. Buchholz has been simply dominant over 20 IP allowing just one run while putting up a sterling 3 BB/15 K ratio. There is no doubt that his stuff is electric. A mid-90's fastball, mid-70's changeup and big 12-6 curveball all rank as MLB-plus pitches and his slider has shown promise as well. Clay struggled last season establishing his fastball early in counts and fell in love with his off speed pitches too much. As a result, he forced himself into a bunch of fastball counts and when failing to locate them down in the zone, became quite hittable. There is plenty of reasons, though, to believe that the 24 year old righty will straighten things out and give Fenway's faithful reason to believe that the pitcher they saw dazzle the world on September 1, 2007 was, and is, the real deal.
2009 Projection: Despite his spring numbers, Clay is headed for Pawtucket to start the 2009 season. He has nothing left to prove there, but the offseason additions of Brad Penny and John Smoltz currently serve as impediments to his progress. There has been some conjecture around the league that a trade may occur bringing Texas Rangers starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Boston. That move was scrapped when the Red Sox signed Josh Bard. Now that Bard has been released and Jason Varitek's backups George Kottaras and Dusty Brown are far from surefire major leaguers, there is a chance that talks will resume. A change of scenery may be just what the Texas native needs. Keep an eye on the trade rumors and also the health of the Red Sox rotation. John Smoltz is on the shelf until at least May and both Brad Penny and Josh Beckett missed time last season with injuries. Buchholz will pitch in the major leagues in 2009, it's just a question of when and where.
The future #1 pick has enjoyed a meteoric ascent to superstardom over the past year. Strasburg's dominated collegiate hitters last season pitching to an 8-3 record with a 1.57 ERA and a stunning 16 BB/133 K in just 97.1 IP. For his efforts, Strasburg was awarded a roster spot on the US Olympic Team where he rapidly became their ace, pitching to a 1-1 record with a 1.64 ERA. Strasburg's stuff is legendary. A fastball that regularly crosses the 100 MPH threshold and has been clocked as high as 103 MPH. Unlike many high velocity fastballs, Strasburg's moves like a cutter at times, which is virtually unheard of for balls thrown at that velocity. Accompanying that heat is a filthy slider that has a two plane break and sits between 88-90 MPH. Not far behind is his rapidly developing changeup that, as it stands now, is an MLB average pitch. Contrary to many young flamethrowers, Strasburg has pinpoint control and a highly developed sense of how to pitch. He was an honor student in high school and has worked dilligently to get his once soft body into the peak condition that it is now. His heightened work ethic is the determining factor to his meteoric ascent from pudgy underachiever to best pitching prospect, perhaps, of all time.
2009 Projection: Strasburg has not let up an ounce this season, as he is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA and a record shattering 19.4 K/9 IP. There is no doubt that he is the #1 prospect of the 2009 draft, but Scott Boras has already sunk his meaty claws into him and is rumored to be seeking an MLB deal in excess of $50 million and a $15 million signing bonus. Those demands alone may cause for him to slip from the top spot as the spectre of other elite flame throwers like Mark Prior, Matt Anderson, Joel Zumaya, and Mark Wohlers could evoke fear into some cost-conscious clubs. However, all indicators point to Strasburg being a major league ready, top of the rotation superstar who will anchor a rotation in Cy Young fashion for years to come.
Shipped over from the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade, Cunningham is precisely the type of player that A's GM Billy Beane loves. He pounded pitching at both AA Midland and AAA Sacramento to the tune of a .329 BA with 17 HR 66 RBI 15 SB and 86 runs scored. He recorded another 80 AB with Oakland, hitting .250 with a HR and 14 RBI. With excellent hand-eye coordination and a compact right handed swing, Aaron generates decent pop that should produce 10-15 HR per season at the major league level. His speed is above average and he uses it savvily in the outfield and on the basepaths, where he should average double digit stolen base numbers. Cunningham has shown solid plate discipline throughout his minor league career, though these numbers have eroded somewhat as he has advanced. At 23 years old, there is not too much room for further projection in Cunningham's game, though he has given enough reason to believe that he can be a fairly productive regular at the major league level.
2009 Projection: The trade for Matt Holliday has muddied the waters in Oakland's outfield scenerio. Aaron has had a solid showing this spring and has earned some serious consideration for a major role in either RF or CF. So have, however, Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Davis, and Chris Denorfia. Being the youngest of this crop, it seems quite likely that Cunningham will be ticketed for AAA at the start of the '09 season, where he will stay until room is made for him by way of injury, non-performance, or trade. Cunningham has some upside as a future MLB regular, but the odds of him becoming one of those "lost in the shuffle" guys increases with every minor league AB.
The Rangers decided to add to their 1B depth with the selection on the Californian prep slugger in the 5th round of the '08 draft. Clark Murphy performed quite well in his first professional action with the Rangers' Arizona Rookie League affiliate, hitting .358 with a HR 21 RBI and 7 doubles in 25 games. Murphy has a rock solid frame and fluid left-handed swing that has already demonstrated good power with wooden bats. His hands move quickly through the ball and he exhibits solid plate discipline (12 BB/19 K in 25 games). Though he is now fully recovered from his quad injury, Murphy still exhibits below average foot speed which should limit his defensive abilities to 1B as a pro. He has exhibited above average footwork and agility around the bag. His arm is more than strong enough for the position as he was an outfielder as a prep player. There are still some mechanical glitches to iron out in his swing. He has a little hitch that occasionally throws off his timing and affects his ability to make consistent contact. This should be something that is completely rectified, allowing for him to more effectively stay back on balls and tap into his considerable raw power.
2009 Projection: Murphy should start at full season Low-A Hickory with future All-Star 1B Justin Smoak beginning at High-A Bakersfield. The thing to watch in Murphy is his power numbers. The odds are good that he will increase his HR output this season, but will it come at the expense of his BB/K ratio? Murphy is stuck in an offensively loaded farm system with exceptional depth at the 1B and OF positions. Expect the Rangers to bring Murphy along at a prudent pace. If he continues to produce good offensive numbers, there is a good chance that he could be a valuable commodity when the Rangers start looking to add to their pitching depth. Given Texas' rapidly improving odds as a playoff contender, this could happen sooner rather than later.
The Braves plunked down $850 K to sign the Colombian flame thrower as a 16 year old. Last season, Julio Teheran pitched at short season Low-A Danville earning a 1-2 record with a 6.60 ERA and 4 BB/17 K in 15 IP. Though he showed himself to be quite hittable in the early going (.301 BAA), Julio exhibited good control and induced groundball outs at a 1.27/FO rate. Teheran already has a fastball that sits comfortably between 93-95 MPH, though he can reach back and bump it up to 97 MPH. Complimenting his fastball is a low 80's changeup with deceptive fade and a powerful curveball that has a late bite to it. Scouts have marveled at how smooth and quick his arm action is, though he needs to clean up some of the mechanics in his delivery. His body has considerable projectibility and needs to build bulk and stamina to handle the rigors of a full season workload.
2009 Projection: Teheran should get his first taste of full season action at Low-A Rome. Compared to Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, Teheran is tabbed to move quickly through the system and, if all goes well, could reach High-A Myrtle Beach by the end of this season. It will be interesting to see if he can keep his control numbers and GO/FO ratio up with Rome. If so, the South Atlantic League tends to favor pitchers which could bode very well for Julio's numbers. The Braves are stocked with an assortment of fine young arms from both sides of the mound, but Teheran's rivals that of Tommy Hanson's as Atlanta's best.
A pop culture icon in Japan, 22 year old Yu Darvish has already begun to make waves in the U.S. following a dazzling performance in the World Baseball Classic which saw him strike out 20 hitters in 12 innings and earn the win for Team Japan in the championship game against Team Korea. Last season for the Nippon Ham Fighters, Darvish went 16-4 with a 1.88 ERA and 208 K's in 200 IP. Reports of Darvish's fastball velocity varies from 91-97 MPH, but it is unanimously known that the pitch has exceptional movement and he commands it well. Even better is his slider which has been rumored to hit 91 MPH with a wicked two plane break. Though he is a media sensation (he's even posed nude in a Japanese magazine), Darvish is reported to be an intense competitor, excellent teammate and hard worker. Darvish is not eligible to be a free agent for another 5 seasons, though he does have the ability to request the Nippon Ham Fighters to make him available to be purchased by an MLB team. Interested parties engage in a silent auction to pay Nippon Ham for the right to negotiate a contract with Darvish. This situation happened with Daisuke Matsuzaka who then signed with the Boston Red Sox after they posted a $51.1 million fee to the Seibu Lions for his services.
2009 Projection: His stock has risen considerably in a short period of time, but the economic climate may make it difficult for even the deepest MLB pocket books to open as widely as they did for Dice-K. That should leave Darvish to continue to pitch in Japan until things change. However, the odds are long that he will leave Japan as a free agent. Whether it be this season or a couple down the road, the bidding process will be feverish for Darvish. Once Yu leaves Japan, expect the Scott Boras-muddled contract negotiations to be as unpleasant as a glimpse at his photo spread.
It seems as if the former 2004 3rd rounder has been toiling in the Seattle Mariners farm system forever, but the fact remains that Tuiasosopo will be just 22 years old on opening day. A former top quarterback recruit at the University of Washington, Tuiasosopo is athletic and very strong. He began his career as a raw project and has slowly begun to develop his skills. He is remarkably agile in the field and should be an above average defensive 3B. His bat is showing signs of life as well. Until recently, he had worked on being a better contact hitter, allowing balls to travel deeper into the zone before inside-outing them to the opposite field, but he showed an increase in power production over the second half of the '08 season at AAA Tacoma and has drove the ball with authority during his spring training outings this season. Plate discipline continues to be an issue that Matt needs to refine. Last season he walked 49 times while striking out 120 times between Tacoma and Seattle. His work ethic and makeup, however, continue to be catalysts that fuel his rapid improvement and when blended with his strength and athleticism, they should propel him to much greater accomplishments in the years to come.
2009 Projection: Tui has opened some eyes within the organization this spring. The M's are at a crossroads as Adrian Beltre's impending free agency and near certain departure from the team looms large. There is talent at the lower levels in the form of Jharmidy DeJesus, Mario Martinez and, perhaps, Carlos Triunfel, but there is no one other than Matt Tuiasosopo to fill Beltre's shoes for the next couple of seasons. This is a big year for Matt to make the developmental jump from prospect to major league player. Beltre's presence in the middle of the M's lineup and his Gold Glove at the hot corner should force Tuiasosopo back to Tacoma for more everyday work. Watch the power numbers and plate discipline. If Tui can continue his hot hitting, a mid-season trade of Beltre will become a greater reality.
The transition from outfielder to pitcher has been a successful one for this former 2002 draft and follow pick. McDonald compiled a 7-4 record with a 3.26 ERA and 141 K's in 141 IP between AA Jacksonville and AAA Las Vegas before making his MLB debut. While his fastball sits at a respectable 89-92 MPH, it is the quality of his offspeed pitches that have determined his success. His curveball has 11-5 break and trails only Clayton Kershaw's as the best in the Dodgers organization, and his changeup has excellent late fade and deception. He has a good idea of how to pitch, locating his fastball well and altering his velocity with clean mechanics and consistent arm speed. One area of concern is his tendency to be a flyball pitcher. Last season, McDonald forced just 0.65 GO/FO and surrendered 15 HR. His good control helped to keep runners off of base, but he will have to continue to work on commanding his fastball down in the strike zone going forward.
2009 Projection: McDonald was impressive in the post season as a reliever for the Dodgers, and there is a good chance that he will be back in that role for the 2009 season. If the Dodgers opt to go with Jeff Weaver in that role, McDonald will be back in AAA to gather more innings and experience as a starter. Ultimately, his ceiling is as a mid-rotation starter (likely a #3 or 4) who can throw 150-180 innings each season and win 12-15 games. With the Dodgers' depth and options, both young and old, it may be difficult for him to fulfill that role with this organization.
Michael Main pitched like a 1st rounder last season, combining to go 3-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 13 BB/65 K per 58.2 IP between Texas' Arizona Rookie League affiliate and full season Low-A Clinton. A nationally renowned two way player as a high schooler, Main is a very good athlete who features a 92-94 MPH fastball and high 70's power curve to strike out hitters in bunches. His changeup is a bit raw at this time and his curveball can be inconsistent at times. Main tends to be a flyball pitcher, which is a dangerous proposition when the Ballpark in Arlington is your future home. That said, he commands his fastball very well and attacks hitters with great confidence. His frame is strong for its size and should project to build some more bulk as he matures. This should help him to add stamina and, perhaps, a couple of digits to the velocity to his already plus fastball.
2009 Projection: The Rangers are overflowing with top quality arms in their farm system with Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Blake Beavan, Kasey Kiker, and Neil Ramirez. Main fits right in the middle of that list, but his curveball and changeup need to develop more consistency or else he could find himself being developed as a power reliever. Keep an eye on this as he pitches at High-A Bakersfield this year. The California League is a difficult one for young pitchers, especially young flyball pitchers. If he can develop some more depth to his offspeed offerings, he should be able to avoid some of the attrition that seems to be awaiting him. If not, he could struggle with this promotion and find himself back at Clinton. Long term, his highly valuable arm will play in the major leagues in some capacity.
Luke Hochevar, the #1 overall pick of the 2006 MLB Draft, completed his first full MLB season with the Royals going 6-12 with a 5.51 ERA and 47 BB/72 K in 121 IP. A stress fracture in his ribcage ended his season in the middle of August. Though his numbers were quite lackluster, Hochevar has an impressive arsenal of pitches led by a low 90's two seam fastball with heavy sink that induced 1.5 GO/FO with the Royals. He also throws a hard curve with a heavy late break that has the potential to be a strikeout pitch. His slider and changeup are merely "show me" pitches at this point and the command of them are still quite inconsistent. Hochevar worked hard in the offseason gaining nearly 20 lbs. that he hopes to hang on to throughout the '09 season. This should help enhance his durability and, perhaps bump his velocity a notch or two. Going forward, Hochevar needs to continue to clean up his mechanics on his delivery and sharpen the command of his slider and change. If he does so, he has an opportunity to be an excellent #2 or 3 starter.
2009 Projection: The Royals have a battle going on between Hochevar, Brian Bannister, and Horacio Ramirez for their final two rotation spots. Ramirez seems like a shoe-in given that he is a LHP. Hochevar's fine spring performance should give him the edge going into the season for the final spot. If Bannister wins the final rotation spot, Hochevar will likely fill the middle relief/spot starter role until things open up for him. Long term, the ground ball tendencies and five pitch arsenal make Luke a solid starting pitcher but, at 25 years old, he will need to make marked improvement in his mechanics and the effectiveness of his slider and change up if he wants to evolve into the frontline pitcher that the Royals drafted him to be.
H/W: 6-1 185 lb. B/T: R/R DOB: 1/14/87
