Posted on 18 May 2009
H/W: 6-4 210 lb. B/T: L/R DOB: 5/9/86
The Padres continued to add to their treasure trove of highly disciplined collegiate hitters by selecting this University of Kentucky alum in the 3rd round of the '08 draft. Carroll has a power hitter's build but is more of a gap to gap hitter whose power should top out at 15-20 HR per season. After adding 20 lbs. of muscle to his long frame, Carroll had an immensely successful senior season with the Wildcats that saw him hit .419 with 19 HR 83 RBI and 69 runs scored. Carroll then signed quickly with the Padres and then split time his time between short season Eugene and Low-A Fort Wayne, hitting .278 with 8 HR 47 RBI and 46 runs scored in 64 games. Carroll employs a disciplined approach at the plate, working deep into counts, drawing walks or driving balls in all parts of the strike zone. Defense was a concern area prior to Carroll's senior season as he was profiled to be a below average first baseman, but he seems to have added some athleticism with his gain in strength and has shown an aptitude to play either corner OF position as well as 1B.
2009 Projection: Carroll's start to the '09 season has been excellent as he is hitting .320 with 20 RBI 9 SB and 9 doubles through his first 29 games. Additionally, he has earned a respectable 22 BB/20 K ratio and has become Fort Wayne's #3 hitter in the lineup. At 22 years old, he is a bit old for this level and, given his early success, it seems that a promotion to High-A Lake Elsinore will happen at some point this season. One thing to take notice of is his lack of power output to date. Prior to his senior season, several scouts were concerned that it would not manifest itself at the wooden bat level and those concerns seem to be coming to fruition at this point. Keep an eye on these numbers as the season progresses. It is difficult to ascertain at this time where Carroll fits into the organization's plans. With so many talented outfielders like Kellen Kulbacki, Jaff Decker, Cedric Hunter, Luis Durango, Chad Huffman, Blake Tekotte and Yefri Carvajal, Carroll has considerable obstacles to overcome in order to win a shot at a full time position with the Padres. Assuredly, there will be some maneuvering done in the future as the team looks to pursue some pitching within the next season or two. Each transaction involving members of the fore-mentioned parties will be effective in shuffling the organization's depth chart and future plans.
Key Sawyer Carrol Baseball Cards:
- 2008 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/543
- 2008 Razor Signature Series Auto #/699
Posted on 18 May 2009
H/W: 6-1 185 lb. B/T: R/R DOB: 1/14/87
The Padres drafted the former Arkansas Razorback as the third of seven consecutive offensive player selected in the '08 draft. Forsythe was limited to just 12 games late last summer with the Padres' short season affiliates, but the club felt confident that his polish shown in college would allow for him to transition smoothly to High-A ball. It indeed has as Forsythe hit .320 with 3 HR 11 RBI and 25 runs scored through his first 29 games. Extremely disciplined at the plate, Forsythe has a fluid right-handed swing that drives the ball well to the gaps with good XBH power and the occasional homerun. He makes good contact with the ball and has a good game plan during each plate appearance. Normally a third baseman, Forsythe is also skilled enough to play just about any position in the field adeptly, making him an excellent utility player. Though he is not a speed guy, Logan runs the bases with a good deal of intelligence and determination, allowing him to manufacture runs in many different ways.
2009 Update: As stated before, Forsythe seems to be handling the challenge of High-A ball well in his first full professional season. He is currently batting in the #5 hole for Lake Elsinore and has collected 11 XBH and 27 BB in his first 29 games. Forsythe is someone who's value may not always be recognized statistically as he does so many little things well. He should, though, be a solid #2 or #6 hitter at the major league level who hits 10-15 HR per season while posting an OB% that rivals .400. The Padres are building something special within their organization as they have drafted a ton of high-discipline, mid-ceiling players that should be solid role players as professionals and Logan Forsythe fits right in with that philosophy. With Kevin Kouzmanoff manning the hot corner for the next few seasons, there is no immediate need to rush Forsythe's development. He should play most or all of the season at High-A with an MLB ETA of 2011. By that time, it will be about time for the Friars to decide what to do with Kouzmanoff's upcoming free agent contract. With no other big time third basemen in the system, Forsythe has a genuine opportunity to be groomed as San Diego's next keeper of the hot corner.
Key Logan Forsythe Baseball Cards:
- 2008 Donruss Playoff Contenders Auto SP #/262
- 2008 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/162
- 2008 Razor Signature Series Auto #/1499
- 2008 Razor Lettermen Auto #/20
Posted on 17 March 2009
H/W: 6-1 185 lb. B/T: L/L DOB: 2/24/89
The young Mission Viejo native had an intriguing debut season at Low-A Ogden. Watt went 9-4 with a 4.35 ERA and a 21 BB/79 K rate in 80.2 IP. Despite the good K rate and solid control, hitters batted .281 against him but also hit a high number of ground balls (1.68/FO). In examining his final 10 starts, the contradiction becomes clearer. As Watts' control improved (10 BB in 64 IP), he became more hittable, allowing 74 hits in that span. Watt has good command of his 89-92 MPH fastball and mixes in a curveball that features a nice 12-6 break that has been described as "knee buckling". Watt has an athletic frame and deceptive delivery that allows for his ball to appear to have more velocity. Padres officials have been quite pleased with the progress of his changeup and there is optimism that this can be an effective third pitch for him. Watt battled a tired arm late last season as he threw several 6+ innings starts.
2009 Projection: Moving to the Padres could prove to be very beneficial to Watt's future. The Dodgers are much more well equipped with high quality young arms, which increased the likelihood that Watt would get caught in the shuffle. He should begin the year at Low-A Fort Wayne. Keep an eye on the BAA numbers and his K/9 IP. He has exhibited good control and seems to pitch to contact. With a better defense behind him, it is conceivable that he could allow less hits, but it could also have an effect on his ability to dominate hitters too. Long term, the Padres don't have a lot of flashy LHP prospects, if Watt is able to squeeze an extra tick or two out of his heater, he could stand out from the rest of the Friars' soft-tossing southpaws.
Key Michael Watt Baseball Cards:
- 2008 Bowman Chrome Auto
- 2008 Bowman Sterling Auto
Posted on 03 March 2009
H/W: 6-4 215 lb. B/T: R/R DOB: 3/11/86
The Oral Roberts alum increased his stock significantly with an excellent showing at Low-A Fort Wayne last season going 10-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 43 BB/150 K in 145 IP. Hefner controls his three pitches quite well, an 89-91 MPH fastball, a sweeping slider, and a heavy changeup that he uses effectively against LH hitters. Hefner pounds all quadrants of the strike zone with excellent command, though his stuff is not overpowering and, with the exception of his change, lacks the deceptive movement that he'll need to be effective against more advanced hitters. Hefner is a cerebral competitor who has a heightened concept of how to get hitters out and his competitive demeanor helps him get the most out of his stuff on the hill. There is some projectibility left in his tall, strong body that could continue his trend to add more velocity to his heater. That would serve him well as he progresses.
2009 Projection: Hefner got a brief glimpse of High-A ball with his one outing at Lake Elsinore. He will be pitching there quite a bit more this season. The California League should provide a good test for Hefner's progress as a pitching prospect. He has been working on a two seam fastball to incorporate more movement on his pitches. If he can effectively mix that with his heavy change, there is ample reason to believe that he will continue to have success in 2009. Watch his GO/FO ratio as it was under 1.00 last year. Also keep an eye on his ability to dominate hitters. His averaged more than a K/9 innings last season, but he will be hard pressed to continue that trend as he advances. Hefner has three solidly commandable pitches that should serve him well in the #3 or #4 spot in a MLB rotation someday.
Key Jeremy Hefner Baseball Cards:
Posted on 26 February 2009
H/W: 5-11 180 lb. B/T: L/R DOB: 5/24/87
The speedy U of Miami alum had a power outbreak in 2008 belting 13 HR with the Hurricanes prior to being drafted in the 3rd round by the Padres. He continued his hot hitting at short season Eugene hitting .285 with 6 HR 29 RBI 7 SB and 43 runs scored in 47 games. Tekotte has excellent lead off hitter skills. He grinds out at bats for walks (27 BB/45 K) and runs exceptionally well on the basepaths. His sweeping lefthanded swing can hit well for pull power while lining balls hard to the gaps and down lines for XBH. Defensively, Tekotte has the range and arm to be a solid CF. Tekotte is a scrappy player who gets the most out of his skills and strives to refine every aspect of his game.
2009 Projection: Low-A Fort Wayne will be Tekotte's likely destination come April. The San Diego Padres organization has made a concerted effort to draft and develop gritty, high baseball IQ players like Tekotte over the past couple of seasons (Kellen Kulbacki, Jaff Decker, Eric Sogard, etc...). Blake fits right in with them and his enhanced abilty to play defense in CF may differentiate him somewhat from the rest of the crowd. The main challenge for Tekotte is to limit his strikeout totals and keep his on base percentage high. He has a tendency to allow his swing to get too long at times, opening up holes that more advanced pitchers could exploit. His work ethic and coachability should help him address his struggles in a positive manner and diminish the possibility of him experiencing any prolonged developmental lapses.
Key Blake Tekotte Baseball Cards:
- 2008 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/194
- 2008 Playoff Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto
- 2008 Bowman Chrome Draft
Posted on 10 February 2009
H/W: 6-0 185 lb. B/T: L/L DOB: 3/10/88
The 20 year old experienced a nice bounce back from a slightly disappointing '07 season by hitting .318 with 11 HR 84 RBI 33 doubles and 98 runs scored at High-A Lake Elsinore. Hunter has the makings of a future .300 hitter with a sweet left-handed stroke that peppers line drives all over the field and produces occasional power to the gaps. Employing excellent hand-eye coordination, Hunter is a tough man to strike out (42 BB/47 K) and if he continues to work deeper into counts, there is a good chance that he could bump up his walk totals. Hunter has average speed, but he uses it fairly well on the basepaths and in covering the gaps in CF. There was some conjecture in the past about a dip in Hunter's work ethic prior to his 2007 season. Some within the organization felt that his fine '06 pro debut may have went to his head a little bit, contributing to his performance dip at Low-A Fort Wayne. It seems that he has moved beyond these concerns, though, and his future as a #2 or #6 hitter in San Diego seems to be quite bright.
2009 Projection: Hunter will play at AA San Antonio in '09. After a highly successful campaign at Lake Elsinore, it seems reasonable to expect a slight drop in his AA numbers. If he can continue to hover around the .300 mark and progress with his power potential, Hunter should figure more prominently into San Diego's 2010 plans. The Padres, however, have some other intriguing offensive options in the OF with the likes of Chase Headley, Kellen Kulbacki, Chad Huffman, and '08 draftee Jaff Decker. Cedric Hunter may not be able to match them homer for homer, but his several other skills should keep him in the mix.
Key Cedric Hunter Baseball Cards:
- 2007 Bowman Chrome Prospects
- 2007 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto
- 2007 Bowman's Best Auto
- 2007 Bowman Heritage
- 2007 Bowman Sterling
Posted on 05 February 2009
H/W: 5-10 180 lb. B/T: L/R DOB: 5/22/86
The former 2nd round pick out of Arizona State did all that he could to evoke comparisons to fellow Sun Devil alum Dustin Pedroia. In his first full professional season, Sogard batted .308 with 10 HR 87 RBI 16 SB and 97 runs scored. Built like a fire hydrant, Sogard is a high energy dirt magnet whose average skill set is greatly enhanced by his invigorating passion to win. Sogard has good offensive tools as his left handed swing is quick and surprisingly powerful. He is a clutch hitter with elite plate discipline (79 BB/63 K) and a knack for driving in runs. Sogard has average speed, but his high baseball I.Q. makes him a weapon on the basepaths and helps to put him in the right place to make plays defensively. Players like Sogard have a way of grinding out productive and prolonged MLB careers. Whether or not he becomes a star in the same vernacular as his Fenway counterpart remains to be seen and is worth a second look.
2009 Projection: Sogard will play at AA San Antonio in 2009. If Matt Antonelli can stick with San Diego there is reason to believe that Eric can jump to AAA Portland at some point. The main thing that Sogard needs to work on is his defense. His .973 fielding % in '08 was about 15-20 points lower than the Padres would like to see from him. Ultimately, his offensive potential trumps Antonelli's and the odds are that Sogard will be 2B in San Diego within the next two years.
Key Eric Sogard Baseball Cards:
- 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft
- 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/500
Posted on 16 January 2009
H/W: 6-5 210 lb. B/T: R/R DOB: 12/9/87
Latos dropped to the 11th round of the 2006 draft due to some concerns about his make-up and bonus demands. The Padres took a flier on him as a draft and follow and have been giddy about results ever since. Last year, Mat pitched at three different levels compiling a 3-3 record with a 2.57 ERA and 13 BB/69 K's in just 56 innings. At the forefront of Latos' repertoire is an intimidating 95-97 MPH fastball that he throws downhill at hitters and a big breaking curveball thrown from a 3/4 arm slot. He has altered the grip on his changeup to be more of a straight change and the results have been quite promising. Mat had some injury woes this year, missing time early in the season with shoulder soreness and later on with a strained oblique. Some feel that this may be due to the fact that his high effort delivery, while deceptive to hitters, has mechanical flaws that leave him prone to injury. Since signing with the Padres, Latos has shown that he is a tough competitor who has proven to be much more coachable than originally expected. Surely there will be some tinkering done with his delivery this coming season.
2009 Projection: Health is the biggest thing keeping Mat from having a major breakout season. The Padres will likely start him back at Low-A Fort Wayne and, if all looks well, he should move to High-A Lake Elsinore at some point. Latos has the stuff to be a frontline starter who can punch out 200+ hitters per season, but the big question mark with him will be his health. The Padres will work dilligently to make the necessary alterations to his pitching mechanics, but there are no guarantees of the overall effect that will have on his effectiveness. If things don't pan out as a starting pitcher, Latos could become a dominant closer instead. Either way, he is the brightest pitching prospect in a rebuilding Padres system.
Key Mat Latos Baseball Cards:
- 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/499
- 2008 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto
Posted on 07 January 2009
H/W: 6-0 180 lb. B/T: R/R DOB: 4/8/85
2008 was a season to forget for the former Padres 1st rounder. After a stellar '07 campaign which saw him hit .307 with 21 HR 78 RBI 28 SB and an incredible 123 runs scored over two levels, Antonelli struggled mightily at AAA hitting a measly .215 with 7 HR and 39 RBI. Antonelli is a joy to watch as he plays each game with maximum effort and a compelling desire to win. He is a highly intelligent hitter who has earned 159 walks in the last two seasons. Antonelli has good pull power but tends to slap balls to the opposite field, which should limit his HR totals. Defensively, his quick first step and advanced baseball instincts allow for him to cover a good bit of ground at 2B. Antonelli's struggles have cast a serious shadow over his once bright potential. Once thought to be a future superstar, there is now a feeling that he will be a solid, but unspectacular MLB player. Antonelli should be able to hit for a .270-.290 BA with 10-15 HR and 10-15 SB per season as a major leaguer, making him a serviceable, middle of the road MLB second baseman.
2009 Projection: Matt's AAA season, as well as his brief 2008 MLB audition were nothing to write home about, but the Padres don't really have many better options at the 2B position. Antonelli should get plenty of opportunities in spring training to prove that he is ready to become a starting middle infielder. Antonelli's 76 BB/84 K ratio and .290 BA in August are reasons for optimism.
Key Matt Antonelli Baseball Cards:
- 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto
- 2006 Bowman Sterling Auto
- 2006 Bowman Heritage
- 2007 Bowman Prospects Auto
Posted on 31 December 2008
H/W: 5-11 185 lb. B/T: L/L DOB: 10/10/85
Anyone who watches this James Madison alum play would swear that they are witnessing the reincarnation of Brian Giles. Compact and powerfully builty, Kulbacki has a quick left-handed swing that mashes the ball with 20-25 HR power to all fields. After early season struggles at Low-A, Kulbacki was promoted to High-A Lake Elsinore where he terrorized California League pitching to the tune of a .332 BA with 20 HR 66 RBI and 68 runs scored in just 84 games. Kulbacki has an advanced feel for the strike zone and he tends to make hard contact with just about every ball he hits. Defensively, Kellen can play either corner OF spot, but he profiles better as a LF down the road. Though he is not a base clogger, Kulbacki will not steal many bags and his range may suffer a little if he puts some more beef on his already sturdy frame.
2009 Projection: The Padres have an affinity for drafting stocky, corner OF, but Kulbacki may end up being the best of them. After a successful '08, Kulbacki will get the nod at AA San Antonio. The biggest challenge for Kellen will be to continue to replicate his power numbers as he advances. He has had no problem doing so to this point, but his value as a corner OF will hinge greatly upon his ability to hit 20+ HR and 75-90 RBI per season. Brian Giles' days as a run producing OF are coming to a close and the Friars have high hopes that the young Kulbacki will swoop in and enjoy the same success as his two-time all-star predecessor.
Key Kellen Kulbacki Baseball Cards:
- 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto
- 2007 Bowman Sterling Auto
- 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/549
Posted on 29 December 2008
H/W: 6-5 240 lb. B/T: L/R DOB: 5/21/87
The San Diego Padres' 1st round pick is a prototypical 1B prospect. His towering frame produces easy power to all fields as evidenced by his 49 career HR at Wake Forest. Dykstra has a smooth left-handed swing and superb plate discipline that he exhibited in his brief stint with High-A Lake Elsinore where he hit .292 with a HR 10 RBI and a 7 BB/7 K ratio in just 24 AB's. A business major at Wake Forest, Allan was an academic All-American whose intelligence and work ethic extends from the classroom to the diamond. There are culpabilities in Dykstra's game as well. Defensively, has subpar range and decent hands which should make him a fringe average 1B. Many scouts felt that Dykstra was a step behind many of the top tier first sackers in the '08 draft class fearing that his long-armed swing would struggle to consistently hit MLB pitching. With the pleasing development of Adrian Gonzalez and the potent bat of Kyle Blanks waiting in the wings, Dykstra will be hard pressed to wedge his way into San Diego's future plans, but given his offensive polish and power potential, the Friars may find it difficult to keep him down for long.
2009 Projection: Dykstra made the jump from college to HIgh-A successfully and it is a good bet that he will be back at Lake Elsinore to begin the '09 season. Some scouts feel that this hulking 1st Basemen has holes in his swing that can be exploited by good pitching. This could lead him to be susceptible to racking up big strikeout numbers. Keep an eye on this as well as his batting average. Dykstra's best bet is to play well enough to become an intriguing trading chip for the Padres down the road as Adrian Gonzalez is the 1B of the present for the Padres and Kyle Blanks is the future.
Key Allan Dykstra Baseball Cards:
- 2008 Donruss Elite Extra Auto #/1069
- 2008 Donruss Prime Cuts Auto #/249
- 2008 Razor Signature Series Auto #/1199
